The Gaddafi regime is crumbling and the situation in Libya is moving rapidly. With Gaddafi all but gone the question remains of what comes next? Libya has no governmental institutions, the national army is fragmented and defeated and the rebels while brave and committed to Gaddafi's defeat, are neither organized or professional. Frankly they are a volunteer army with more dividing than unifying them. There is a major risk of factional violence once the dust has settled in the war to remove Gaddafi. Add to that the major tasks of rebuilding a nation devastated by war for the last six months, creating a government and creating public services the Libyans have some major challenges ahead. I do hear the Transitional National Council has stated they will not disband the army or police forces and they want no reprisal actions once the war is over. While that is a wonderful sentiment I hope it will be shared by most as war tends to bring out the best and worst in people, with the worst often outweighing the best by a significant margin.
The other concern I have at the moment is the huge stockpile of weapons of mass destruction in Libya. A bit of a lukewarm term these days after the WMD boondoggle in Iraq, however Gaddafi actually HAS a huge inventory of WMD's in the form of Mustard/Blister agent, and the makings for Sarin gas. I am not clear on the details of his nuclear program but I believe he shut it down in 2003-2004. He decided to play "nice" after we invaded Iraq, a pleasant surprise from him. The rebels have neither the expertise or wherewithal to properly handle these types of weapons which need to be secured soon, and by people with the proper training/technical expertise. These types of weapons obviously are a serious danger if in the wrong hands whether they be terrorists or just untrained/unqualified people. Additionally according to the head of the Senate Intelligence Committeee, there are thousands of advanced shoulder fired anti air-missiles in the Libyan Army inventory. Something else that is a concern if made accessible to the wrong people. Just imagine what an Al Qaeda cell could do with access to even some of these weapons.
The Transitional National Council which is now recognized as the legitimate Libyan Government appears to have the best of intentions for the Libyan people and for both the short and long term goals of the nation. It remains to be seen how well the rebel forces will follow the TNC once the unifying factor of eliminating Gaddafi is eliminated. It is my hope that the country of Libya will see less violence and pull together under a true representational government. As my Arab friends would say "Insha'alla."
You make an excellent analysis....particularly the formation of government structures. Unfortunately, Libya is wracked by tribalism, as are most Middle Eastern countries. Ghaddafi used his position as head of the most powerful tribe as support for his role of dictator. Tribalism is going to be a huge stumbling block to creating a national goverment.
ReplyDeleteAgreed, tribalism is a major issue through much of the Middle East. Where it is less of an issue religious sectarianism is. Libya has huge issues to overcome, but there is a growing literacy rate with many people in Libya becoming highly educated over the past years. One can only hope that knowledge can make some gains over tradition.....a long haul but not impossible.
ReplyDeleteThanks for being the first to leave a comment Lance!